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Why waiting for a market crash may not be a good strategy

May 22nd, 2025 10:15 AM by Sam Kader MLO130505

Many potential homebuyers have paused their search due to high interest rates and home prices. However, while rate cuts and slowing price growth are expected, experts caution buyers not to wait for a dramatic drop in either.

Fannie Mae forecasts interest rates to decline modestly, projecting 6.1% by the end of 2025 and 5.8% by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Redfin recently reported a slight 0.1% national home price decline in April—the first drop since 2022.

Industry professionals emphasize that a housing crash like 2008 is unlikely due to today’s stronger mortgage underwriting standards. Unlike the mid-2000s, today’s borrowers must meet full qualification guidelines, which contributes to a more stable housing market.

Inventory levels are rising in many major metro areas. For example, one metro that had inventory as low as 6,000 listings during the low-rate frenzy is now back up to 20,000, approaching a more balanced market.

Homebuyers tend to fall into three groups:

  1. Those ready and able to buy, regardless of interest rates.
  2. Those holding out for lower rates.
  3. Those who want to buy but are struggling with affordability and qualification.

It’s the third group—often first-time buyers or families with limited resources—that faces the toughest challenges. Experts warn that waiting for lower rates may lead to more competition and higher home prices once demand surges again.

With market volatility, inflation concerns, and no clear timeline for Fed rate cuts, professionals are urging serious buyers to act based on their personal situation, rather than market speculation. If you are qualified to buy now - do it and don't wait. 

Today’s interest rates are closer to historical norms. The ultra-low rates of the pandemic 2020's era were an anomaly, not a benchmark. Buyers waiting for a repeat may find themselves priced out entirely. Instead, focus on what works for your family now—and move forward if the time is right.

Posted in:Market Update and tagged: Market Update
Posted by Sam Kader MLO130505 on May 22nd, 2025 10:15 AM

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